Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves recorded 10 fewer goals from open-play situations compared to this point the previous campaign.

One of the biggest stories of the EPL this campaign has been the drop of scoring in open-play scenarios and how sides are finding goals more from set-pieces instead.

Looking at how goals have been scored to the initial 11 matches the prior season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 less overall.

If we look at the broader view, the number of shots sides are producing reveal an incredible drop of 370 in open play than this time last time out.

And despite the notable jump in set-play finishes, records show a mere two extra attempts generated from these situations excluding penalties, demonstrating the efficiency teams are at discovering methods to net from dead-ball situations.

Goal Statistics Show an Interesting Narrative

Over 300 goals recorded in 110 matches to date averages out at 2.74 scores each match, which if it continued for the entire campaign could be the smallest for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69 per game).

However, only 196 scores coming in open play translates to 1.78 per fixture and is tracking to be the least for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76).

2009-10 is also the unique EPL season to see goals scored at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than the current rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79).

What Clubs Account for This Change?

When it comes to scoring from open-play, Wolves have seen the most significant decrease, registering only four in 11 matches, 10 fewer than at this stage last season.

Apart from Wolverhampton, the Premier League's decline in goals from open play is largely a London phenomenon, with five of the city's seven teams recording a minimum of five fewer goals from open-play than the prior season.

To be fair, this is mainly because their scoring lots of scores at the start of last season instead of their genuine struggle to convert in open play the current term.

Meanwhile City have recorded the most significant jump, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored this season arriving in open play.

Dead-Ball Dominance

We've compared the promoted teams with the relegated sides they replaced. Play-off winners Sunderland have scored an additional three scores in open-play than Southampton achieved in matchday 11 on their way to relegation the previous campaign.

Regarding scoring from dead-ball situations (aside from penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have recorded the most significant jump, with the two clubs compensating for the reduction of five goals that they've netted in open-play with an equal amount from dead-ball chances.

Manchester United have recorded two times more scores from set-plays as they achieved in the first 11 matches last season prior to the manager took charge, while Sunderland once more are more effective at netting than the club they replaced they superseded.

Manchester City seem unaware of the message about netting additional goals from set-plays, since they've netted three less than last season, like the Reds, though that might be down to the tactical shift they've attempted to adopt.

League-Wide Trends

Six teams – Arsenal, the Blues, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Tottenham and the Hammers – have been the current campaign's leading trend-followers by netting less goals from open-play and additional from set-pieces, while City are the sole team to buck the trend so far by doing the contrary.

It remains to be seen to watch if sides continue to place such emphasis on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they find again their all-round creativity and commence scoring more goals in open play too.

Justin Martinez
Justin Martinez

Maya is a gaming enthusiast and strategist with over a decade of experience in analyzing gaming trends and sharing actionable tips.