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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.